There is no definitive evidence in the provided sources or reliable public information confirming the destruction of Pakistan’s nuclear warheads or any significant leakage of radioactive material as of May 12, 2025.
However, recent claims and unverified reports circulating on platforms like X and in some media outlets have raised concerns about potential damage to Pakistan’s nuclear facilities due to Indian airstrikes, particularly following the escalation of tensions after the April 2025 Pahalgam attack. Below, I’ll address the situation based on available information, separating verified details from unconfirmed claims.
Verified Information
● Context of India-Pakistan Tensions:
Tensions between India and Pakistan escalated after a terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Indian-administered Kashmir, on April 22, 2025, which killed 26 people, mostly tourists. India attributed the attack to Pakistan-backed militants, while Pakistan denied involvement.
In response, India conducted airstrikes under Operation Sindoor starting May 7, targeting what it described as “terrorist infrastructure” in Pakistani territory, including airbases like Nur Khan, Rafiqui, and Sargodha, some of which are associated with Pakistan’s nuclear capabilities.
Pakistan retaliated with strikes on Indian military bases, leading to four days of intense conflict until a U.S.-brokered ceasefire was announced on May 10, 2025.
● Pakistan’s Nuclear Arsenal:
Pakistan is estimated to possess approximately 170 nuclear warheads as of 2025, with the potential to grow to around 200 by the late 2020s. These warheads are stored disassembled, with fissile cores separated from delivery systems to enhance security.
Key facilities, such as those at Kirana Hills (near Sargodha) and Nur Khan Airbase (Rawalpindi), are believed to house nuclear warheads or command-and-control systems. These sites are heavily guarded and designed with safeguards to prevent accidental detonation.
● Indian Airstrikes and Targets:
Satellite imagery and reports confirm damage to Pakistani airbases, including Nur Khan, Rafiqui, and Sargodha, which house nuclear-capable aircraft like the Mirage III/V and F-16s. Some of these bases are also linked to nuclear storage or command systems.
Indian officials, including Air Marshal A.K. Bharti, have denied deliberately targeting nuclear facilities, stating that strikes focused on terror-linked infrastructure. Bharti remarked, “We did not know Kirana Hills houses some nuclear installation… We have not hit Kirana Hills.”
Analysts note that nuclear warheads are designed with extensive safeguards, making it unlikely for conventional strikes to cause detonations or significant radioactive leaks. Any potential leaks would likely be contained within underground facilities.
● Nuclear Safety:
Pakistan’s nuclear warheads are stored in a disassembled state, reducing the risk of accidental detonation or theft. The country employs a layered security system, including physical barriers, personnel reliability programs, and permissive action links (PALs) to prevent unauthorized use.
Both Pakistani and U.S. officials have repeatedly stated that Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal is secure from internal threats like insurgents or external attacks.Unverified Claims and Speculation
Claims of Nuclear Destruction and Leakage:
Posts on X and some media reports claim that Indian airstrikes, particularly on Kirana Hills and Nur Khan Airbase, may have damaged nuclear storage facilities, leading to radioactive leakage. For example, a post on X alleged that a U.S. Department of Energy aircraft (N11SZ) was surveying Pakistan for radiation leaks.
Anther post claimed an Egyptian cargo plane delivered boron (used to dampen radioactive spills) to Pakistan, suggesting a nuclear incident.Some users on X reported seismic tremors and likened the situation to a “Chernobyl moment,” alleging that strikes caused underground nuclear facilities to leak radiation.
● U.S. Involvement:
Reports of a U.S. radiation-monitoring aircraft landing at Nur Khan Airbase have fueled speculation about a nuclear incident. However, there is no official confirmation from the U.S. or Pakistan regarding such a mission or detected radiation.
● Lack of Official Confirmation:
Pakistan has not publicly acknowledged any damage to its nuclear facilities or radiation leaks. Instead, officials have downplayed the strikes, claiming minimal damage to “empty hillsides” at Kirana Hills.
The U.S., which played a key role in brokering the ceasefire, has not issued statements confirming radiation concerns, though Secretary of State Marco Rubio noted diplomatic engagement with both nations.
Analysis
Likelihood of Destruction or Leakage:
The destruction of nuclear warheads by conventional airstrikes is highly unlikely due to their robust design and storage in fortified underground bunkers. Even if storage facilities were hit, warheads are not assembled, reducing the risk of detonation. Minor radiation leaks from damaged fissile material are theoretically possible but would likely be contained within subterranean layers, as experts suggest.
Evidence Gaps:
Claims of radiation leaks rely heavily on unverified X posts and anecdotal reports (e.g., boron shipments, U.S. aircraft). Without official confirmation or independent scientific measurements, these remain speculative. The presence of a U.S. aircraft, if true, could indicate precautionary monitoring rather than confirmed leakage.
Strategic Implications:
Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal is a cornerstone of its deterrence strategy against India. Any confirmed damage or leakage would represent a significant escalation, potentially destabilizing South Asia’s nuclear balance. The rapid ceasefire and Pakistan’s restrained rhetoric suggest both sides are keen to avoid such an outcome.
As of May 12, 2025, there is no conclusive evidence that Pakistan’s nuclear warheads have been destroyed or that significant radioactive leakage has occurred. Indian airstrikes targeted key military and nuclear-associated sites, but official statements and expert analyses suggest no direct hits on nuclear warheads or widespread environmental impact.
Prime Minister Targeted By Opposition & Former Army Officers
Unverified claims on X about radiation leaks and U.S. monitoring aircraft are inconclusive without corroboration from credible sources. The situation remains tense, and further developments should be monitored through official channels or verified reports.